Inevitability (US edition)

I think the jury is back in. It's clear that the Democrats have no answer to Trump: he's going to win another term.

I would like to add "assuming he stands", because I've seen it speculated that he'll drop out of his own accord sometime before the Republican convention, but I can't see it. That would expose him to legal jeopardy for all the charges currently being stacked up against him. His best chance of staying out of prison - and I'm pretty sure he's determined to do that, if nothing else - is to remain president.

So with that in mind, and in the hope of coming to terms with the reality of modern America, I'd like to reflect on some of the things I'm thankful for about the Trump administration. After all, he has been the most effective president of this century. (That's faint enough praise, but sincere nonetheless.)

What has he done for us?

Well, first, he's shown us all what the world looks like without American leadership. On issues such as climate change, we used to devote a lot of useless energy to trying to get the Americans on board with this initiative or that. With that distraction removed, now our attention is focused where it should have been all along - on our own governments. In Australia, for instance, the wrath over climate denial is now being (correctly) directed at Scott Morrison - nobody mentions Trump.

In the Middle East, he's shown all parties how foolish it is to rely on American power. (I hope the Israelis, in particular, have taken note. That bastard Netanyahu has taken Trump for a friend, but between the two of them there's a good chance they've doomed Israel: they've politicised American support for it. That's not, in itself, a good thing - but at least the Israelis will have enough warning of the end, they'll have a chance to mend their own relations if they can ever muster the will to do it.)

For the rest of us - well, we've seen the lengths that the likes of Russia and China will go to, and the tactics they may employ in their respective bids for dominance. And we don't yet have an effective answer to either one, but at least we know what they can do.

All of this is ugly, but it's the truth and we needed to know it.

Second, he's stripped away the figleaf of morality that has allowed America to build its empire with a good conscience all these years. When American soldiers are send abroad in future, there'll be no more nonsense about preserving freedom or protecting the homeland: we'll all know that their purpose is to protect the profits of well connected US companies and nothing else. That in turn will help to clarify our (foreign) voters' perceptions toward how our own politicians deal with them. It'll take a while, but we'll get there.

In the USA itself, he has mobilised left-wing factions as never before. There's a publicly-self-identified "socialist" faction in Congress now. Cities and states all over the country have declared their own determination to reach climate goals, ignoring the federal government.

(Paradoxically and sadly, this "mobilisation" of opposition does nothing to weaken Trump. Bringing more and more factions out in protest has the side effect of highlighting how little they really agree on - hence the sorry state of the current Democratic primary, and the growing tension between the traditional and "woke" wings of the party. I'm pretty sure that Trump himself understands this, and is working hard at exploiting it.)

He may have, temporarily at least, cured an affliction that affects British liberals observing their own country, when they are prone to observe that it "needs a written constitution". Trump has shown just how little difference that makes. What you can get away with has much more to do with who is enforcing the rules, than with whether or not such rules are written down.

As for the USA itself - I'm sorry, but there's not much we can do for you. If you can't settle on a candidate capable of beating Trump, or at the very least elect a senate that will stop him from packing the judiciary as well as the executive with his toadies - all we can offer you, at best, is somewhere to run to. Of course running won't solve your country's problems, but it just might solve yours.